Tuesday, May 06, 2008

What will the margins of victory be?

As people have digested all of the late activity of the campaign and maybe picking up on whispering about how people voted, the Intrade Prediction Market is currently showing Barack with a 95% chance in North Carolina and Hillary with a 93% chance in Indiana. That is about what everyone has been expecting, but it tells us very little since it is the margins of victory (and defeat) that will determine whether today's results will be "decisive" in any way. Unless either candidate scores a "landslide" victory (extremely unlikely) or at least a dramatic margin of victory in both states, we will be left essentially right where we started after Pennsylvania, effectively a stalemate, with Barack still technically in the lead but still unable to "close the deal."

How is that for a universal bumper sticker: "Close the deal."

-- Jack Krupansky


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