Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Can Barack finally close the deal?

In less than 24 hours we shall finally get the answer to the question of whether Barack can finally close the deal. He needs to push ahead of Hillary in Indiana and really blow her away in North Carolina. Can he do it? Well of course he can, but the real question is whether he is going to focus and actually get his act together this time. Hillary even handed him a policy issue on a silver platter, her gas holiday "gimmick." If he can't turn that around and knock her out of the race, I am not sure what he is going to be able to do.

Barack is still sulking after being accused of being an elitist, while Hillary has been busy recasting herself as the proverbial working-class hero. Yes, that gas holiday may only be 30 cents a day, but that is no excuse for Barack to be so condescending to the trials and tribulations of working-class voters, for whom 30 cents is better than nothing and at least shows that somebody acts as though they really care.

In any case, I do wish him luck. No need to wish Hillary luck since she is having way to much fun to notice how steep a hill she has to climb.

My estimate is that Hillary will lose in North Carolina by 4% to 10% and that she will prevail in Indiana by 2% to 8%.

My estimate is that Hillary will only be "knocked out" if she loses in North Carolina by more than 15% and loses in Indiana by more than 10%. If she loses in North Carolina by only 10% and loses in Indiana by only 5%, she can probably continue to limp along.

My estimate is that the only thing that can really shift momentum into Hillary's favor would be an outright win in North Carolina and a win by 10% in Indiana. That would really take the wind of Barack's sails even if he does retain a pledged delegate lead.

-- Jack Krupansky


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