Saturday, April 19, 2008

Rejoice! The end is near!

I know it is hard to imagine, but in less than four days "it" will all be over. The Pennsylvania primary, that is. I am not going to say that it is a slam dunk for Hillary to win, but that looks as if that will be the case. The main matter of debate is the margin of victory. Will she beat Barack by "double digits", or will the margin be so narrow that the "balance" between the two candidates does not shift hardly at all.

And after this particular "it" really is over, we move on to the next "it" in the "Big It" of the remaining primaries leading up to the convention in August.

The Intrade Prediction Market indicates about an 83% chance of Hillary prevailing in Pennsylvania. It also gives her a 50% chance of winning in Indiana, an 85% chance of winning West Virginia, and a 75% chance of winning Kentucky.

Intrade gives Barack about a 94% chance of winning in North Carolina, a 42.7% chance in Indiana, a 91% chance in Oregon, and an 82% chance in Montana.

-- Jack Krupansky


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