Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Hillary's chances perking up a little

The Intrade Prediction Market is once again giving Hillary a 15% chance of capturing the democratic nomination. That is not great, but it is trending back up. The market give her only a 9% chance of getting elected in November.

The market gives her a 91% chance in Pennsylvania, a 63% chance in Indiana, an 87% chance in West Virginia, and an 80% chance in Kentucky. Not bad for someone who is basically being written off. I'll refrain from offering the relevant Mark Twain quote.

Her chance in North Carolina is 7%, 10% in Oregon, and 15% in Montana.

After Pennsylvania, a strong showing in Indiana could actually give her a shot at convincing people (e.g., superdelegates) that Obama is not a slam-dunk shoe-in.

-- Jack Krupansky


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