Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Edwards impact on the presidential political equation

With John Edwards being the "progressive" candidate, I personally would have estimated that his dropping out of the campaign would instantly accrue much more to Barack than Hillary. I would have guessed that people see Barack as at least a little more progressive than Hillary. But, a quick check on the Intrade Prediction Market shows that Hillary is still sitting at a 62.5% chance of winning the nomination and Barack is still back at a 38.1% chance.

OTOH, Intrade "punters" do not necessarily have any magical insight into how real people behave when "changing horses."

On the other other hand, punters may have assumed all along that Edwards was going to drop out eventually and factored that into past "betting" about a Hillary versus Barack race.

-- Jack Krupansky


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