Sunday, January 27, 2008

What do the results from South Carolina tell us?

The margin of victory for Barack in South Carolina was extremely impressive, better than 2 to 1, but it is less obvious what conclusions to draw from the demographics of that spread. The New York Times tells us that:

Mr. Obama, who built an extensive grass-roots network across the state over the last year, received the support of about 80 percent of black voters, the exit polls showed. He also received about one-quarter of the white vote, with Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Edwards splitting the remainder.

In particular, Mr. Obama was helped by strong support from black women, who made up 35 percent of the voters. Mrs. Clinton, with the help of her husband, had competed vigorously for black women voters, but Mr. Obama received about 80 percent of their support, according to the exit polls, conducted by Edison/Mitofsky for the National Election Pool of television networks and The Associated Press.

The demographics of South Carolina appear to be rather different from the rest of the country.

The good news from South Carolina is that whoever wins the Democratic nomination should do well in the state in the general election.

The Intrade Prediction Market is still indicating that Hillary has a 64% chance of capturing the nomination and Barack a 37% chance. In other words, South Carolina was a big win for him, but people are skeptical about extrapolating a win in South Carolina to the national level. We'll see what really happens.

-- Jack Krupansky


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