Saturday, January 26, 2008

Any surprises in store in South Carolina?

The Democratic primary polls are closing right about now in South Carolina. The Intrade Prediction Market is currently indicating that Barack has a 98% chance of winning and Hillary has a 2.5% chance of winning. We'll see what really happens.

The important thing is the margin of victory. Will Hillary lose (or win) by only a modest margin, or will Barack win by a landslide and actually build up some momentum? It is unfortunate that Intrade does not have a market for the "spread."

-- Jack Krupansky


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