Sunday, October 20, 2013

Who exactly is winning in 2014?

The NY Times actually published a semi-reasonable article on the political battles shaping for the 2014 election:
Fiscal Crisis Sounds the Charge in G.O.P.'s 'Civil War'
I'd rate it a C+. It does shed some significant insight, but only on one side of the fence. I mean, the Democrats are not as united as their fiscal "victory" suggests. There are still plenty of Democrats who will face the same challenges in their own primaries and elections. I mean, will Progressive Liberals really "sit down and shut up" and settle for moderate, mainstream Democrats who are in fact willing to compromise on even reasonable matters (e.g., tax reform), or will they too begin clamoring for a more activist Democratic party. Sure, there was at least some semblance of unity in the latest fiscal battle, but that was dirt-simple since the Republicans were only asking for something that they absolutely did not have the votes for in the Senate. But what will happen to that unity when the debate shifts to the severe compromise needed for tax reform, immigration reform, etc.?
Maybe the real bottom line of the article was the mention of how the Republicans are beginning to do a much better job of preemptively vetting populist candidates to assure that they can win a general election before they garner too much momentum at the primary level. Sure, that may make the Tea Party members of Congress a little less extreme, but hardly make them amenable to the interests of your average Progressive Liberal.
In short, the article does indeed suggest that there will be battles within the GOP, but does nothing to assure that Democrats will have any better luck winning back the House. Let alone the fact that even if the Democrats won a House Majority, that the new guys would be "true", Progressive Liberal Democrats, as opposed to the kind of semi-right moderates who only barely passed Obamacare in the Senate and are hardly amenable to tolerating non-centric Progressive causes.
Sure, Obamacare is (relatively) safe, some form of immigration reform will eventually pass (but how watered down), and maybe even some tax reform (but how palatable will it be to Progressive Liberals). So, yes, the future does look a bit brighter, but would your average Progressive Liberal agree?
IOW, there will be additional victories for the Democrats, but how pyrrhic will they be?
And, for sure, the "old" GOP is on its way out, but will the "new" GOP be that much more sympathetic, especially in the Senate, where a vocal minority can cause more than a little mayhem?

-- Jack Krupansky


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