Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Will the Powell endorsement enable an Obama landslide?

Although Colin Powell sullied his reputation by aiding and abetting the invasion of Iraq, his overall military and foreign policy record and credentials could be a huge boost for Barack Obama. Alas, we do need to discount the value of the endorsement at least somewhat by the strong possibility that racial pride was either an actual factor or will at least be perceived as a factor, but even that possibility still leaves plenty of residual value to the endorsement. That said, there is the very real possibility that the endorsement could lead to further "defections" from right-leaning centrists and effectively give them permission and say to them that it is okay for center-conservatives to feel at least somewhat comfortable with a Barack Obama administration.

As of right now, RealClearPolitics.com is showing that Obama has gotten a modest bump, from about 4.9% to 5.7% advantage over McCain averaged across various polls.

The real issue is not the endorsement per se, but whether Obama will exploit it and begin to start reaching out to disenchanted centrists (e.g., people who think Powell is a good guy) rather than incessantly preaching to his Progressive choir.

I think Barack could achieve a landslide using the Powell endorsement, but it almost seems as if Barack is indifferent about reaching out to centrists.

Actually, I suspect that Barack is overly-focused on the younger new voters and his massive voter registration drive, for which a Powell endorsement is an irrelevancy. These new voters may in fact give him a dramatic edge. And, in fact, they are probably a much easier sell than hardened centrists.

We will see in the next few days.

For now, it still appears that Barack is poised for a solid win, but not a landslide.

OTOH, the margin between the two candidates in a number of states could turn out to be less than the advantage Barack has with young voters who do not show up in a lot of traditional polls due to their reliance on cell phones rather than traditional "land lines." So, a landslide may in fact already be in the cards. But, Powell is not relevant to this part of the equation.

-- Jack Krupansky


Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home