Saturday, August 26, 2006

Is it really inevitable that Iran will "go nuclear"?

An opinion piece by Bill Emmott, former editor of The Economist, in the Washington Post entitled "Iran is Going Nuclear, the UN Can't Stop It" does not persuade me at all that it is inevitable that Iran will develop and deploy nuclear weapons. In fact, he hedges slightly by phrasing it as "if (as seems certain) it chooses to develop nuclear weapons".

My personal view has three parts:

  1. Every sovereign country inherently has the right to develop nuclear weapons.
  2. There is a reasonable probability that Iran may eventually develop such weapons.
  3. There is no clear and convincing evidence that proves that Iran either intends to develop such weapons or that such weapon development program is actually in progress or even on the drawing boards.

The un-credible argument of Ms. Rice and the Neocons is that we shouldn't wait for a "mushroom cloud" before acting. AT least that was their argument with Iraq. That may be true, but there is a very, very, very long road from where we are today to any mushroom cloud here in the U.S.

If Iran does pursue a nuclear weapons program, we only have five main reasons to blame:

  1. The U.S. has proved that having nukes means having power, having a deterrent.
  2. Israel already has nukes.
  3. The U.S. has resisted the push to declare the Middle East a "nuclear-free zone".
  4. The U.S. is telling everybody that Iran is pursuing the development of nuclear wapons.
  5. The U.S. is pursuing the kind of bullying foreign policy that only encourages countries like Iran to do precisely whatever we command them not to do.

I'm actually not sure how Mr. Emmott intended for us to read his opinion piece. Maybe it was merely a lame attempt at sarcasm and meant the opposite of what he said. Who knows.

My real position is that we should take reasonable measures to deter Iran from developing nuclear weapons, but that does not mean we should take extreme measures and it certainly does not mean that we should do what we did with Iraq and act without a firm foundation of solid evidence that is truly credible by sane people outside of the cabal that is lobbying to "Stop Iran".

The short answer to the question is: No, it is *not* inevitable that Iran will develop nuclear weapons.

-- Jack Krupansky


Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home