Saturday, April 21, 2012

Romney still has no credible chance to beat Obama

Despite some polls that suggest that Romney is giving Obama a run for his money, Romney has essentially zero chance of beating Obama in November. The polls simply reflect Romney with a ghost none-of-the-above running mate that enables him to poll much better than if he had an actual (and likely conservative) running mate.
Given existing animosity and lackluster interest towards Romney from right-wing conservatives, it is very unlikely that his running mate will be as moderate as himself. A running mate even just a little less moderate and just a little more conservative than himself will instantly move a number of independents over towards Obama.
And the odds are that he will be forced to pick a reasonably conservative running mate to avoid an outright mutiny in the Republican party ranks.
The Real Clear Politics average of recent polls is showing Obama having a 3.1% lead over Romney. Intrade is showing Obama at 60.1%.
As long as the economy continues to limp along and actually make a little progress, Obama is golden. There is very little that he can do wrong at this stage. He has a solid track record of doing enough things "good enough" to maintain reasonable traction.
As I like to say, all Obama has to do is smile and keep his shoes shined, and occasionally buff up his flag pin (or take off his jacket and roll up his sleeves, which is equivalent to wearing the flag pin.)


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