Thursday, October 02, 2008

Electoral college poll shifts even further towards Obama, 353 to 185

As most of us know, the popular vote does not determine who becomes president and the overall national polls map to the popular vote, not the electoral college votes. But RealCearPolitics does have a map of the comparable electoral college vote based on the state-by-state polls. Currently, the map shows Obama with 171 solid electoral college votes and McCain with 158. Obama has 88 leaning votes to McCain's 5 leaners. The remaining 116 electoral votes are toss-ups. The toss-ups have been steadily shifting to leaning to Obama. Excluding tossups, Obama has 259, McCain 163. Including toss-ups, Obama has 353 and McCain 185. That is the bottom line, Obama has a significant lead in the total electoral college vote tally, but all leaning and toss-ups are subject to change on short notice..

Some people say that Ohio represents the entire country. The map still shows Ohio as a toss-up, but now with Obama slightly ahead by 2.0%.

McCain is quite clearly losing momentum while Barack is quite clearly gaining momentum.

The real clear bottom line is that although this election is not a slam-dunk for either candidate, Obama is now quite clearly in the lead. But, it is too early to claim a win based on toss-ups and leaners.

Obama has a potential advantage in that his team is really good at registering new voters and reaching out to young voters, many of whom do not have traditional phones so they would not show up in traditional polling. He may in fact currently have a 2% to 5% advantage that the polls cannot see. Obama also has the advantage of opposing the war in Iraq (and planning to get out ASAP) and a crummy economy and poor financial regulatory oversight. McCain's primary advantage is simply that most sane people do not trust non-centrist Democrats with either defense or the economy. Obama may have plans, but they do not have credibility with many people.

-- Jack Krupansky


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