Saturday, February 10, 2007

Will Iraq be "doomed" if current U.S. mission fails?

The subtitle for a Reuters article entitled "Petraeus: Baghdad crackdown must succeed" says "New commander says 'mission doable' but Iraq will be 'doomed' if it fails." I do not buy that at all. Actually the full quote from General Petraeus was:

The mission is doable...The prospects for success are good. Failing that, Iraq will be doomed to continuing violence and civil strife and surely that is a prospect all must strive to avoid.

So, that is a somewhat different usage of the term doomed.

In truth, there are some very real things that will be "doomed" if the current U.S. mission fails:

  1. The credibility of Petraeus himself.
  2. The credibility of Defense Secretary Gates and the rest of his Pentagon staff.
  3. The credibility of Preseident Bush and his team for their misguided vision, strategy, and execution, and their misguided agenda for invading Iraq in the first place.
  4. The credibility of the Neoconservatives and the rest of the so-called Pro-Israel Lobby for pushing the concepts of "liberation", "freedom", "democracy", "war on terror", etc. all to justify invading Iraq to pursue their own agenda that had nothing to do with the events of 9/11.
  5. The efforts of the U.S. to shape and be in control of the form of government in Iraq.
  6. The efforts of the U.S. to shape and be in control of Iraq's relations with Syria and Iran.
  7. The efforts of the U.S. to shape and be in control of Iraq's attitude towards Israel.
  8. The efforts of the U.S. to maintain a military presence in Iraq as a component of its misguided policies towards Iran (and Syria).
  9. The overall credibility of the U.S. for not pursuing a rational peace plan for the Middle East.

But, Iraq itself is not "doomed." To be sure, Iraq will see a lot of chaos and strife as Iraqi power bases incrementally wend themselves towards some form of "accommodation", both between groups within Iraq and with Iraq's neighbors, including Iran and Syria.

It may take three to five years, but eventually Iraq will settle down to being a relatively peaceful neighbor in the Middle East. Yes, the process to get there will be chaotic, but the continued presence and participation of the U.S. and its military force and meddling bureaucrats and Neoconservative agenda is a distinct impediment to that process. The U.S. is actively preventing Iraq from navigating the shoals of democracy. The U.S. needs to get out and it needs to do it as soon as possible. The mere presence of the U.S. is adding to this feeling of "doom" that some speak of.

-- Jack Krupansky


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